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Population Momentum

IB DP Geography
       
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Base Knowledge and Understanding

Base knowledge and understanding

 
Video Clip
Data Visualization
   
Definition population projection
medium fertility variant
policymaker
replacement level
immigration
sub-Saharan Africa
News Article
Words to be defined
 
Base Level

Context

 

The aim of this lesson:

  • To be able to explain population momentum and its impact on population projections.
 
Geography Activities

Population Momentum

Lots of people will make lots of babies.

Population momentum is the situation where a population continues to grow despite falling birth and fertility rates. The situation is due to the large percentage of the population which are of pre-childbearing and childbearing age. As this 'productive' section of the population grows older they will reproduce causing birth rates to exceed death rate and so natural increase will lead to continued population growth.

 
Make notes on the contents of the following video:
 
Geography Activities

Synthesis

 
Geography Activities

Population Projections

 

Switzerland Population Projection
 
Hyperlink
  New Security Beat - Population Projections: Breaking Down the Assumptions [25 June 2012]
Guardian
  What happens if the population forecasts are wrong? [19 September 2011]
 
Geography Activities
Geography Activities

The Situation in Japan

Use the graphs above and the linked resources below to make notes under the following title:

  • Population momentum in Japan and its impact on population projections.
 
Japan Population Projection
 
Hyperlink
  Global Post - Population clock shows Japanese face extinction in 1,000 years [13 May 2012]
Guardian
  Japan population to shrink by a third by 2060 [30 January 2012]
 
Geography Review

Review

 
Population Projection Graph
UN Projection: Changes in Fertility Rates 1950 – 2000 and future projections 2000 – 2050
 
  1. Describe the differences between the High, Medium and Low projections of Fertility rate. [3 marks]
  2. Define population momentum. [2 marks]
  3. Discuss the problems that population momentum could cause in any country with similar projected fertility rates (to that in the graph above) in the immediate and long term future. [6 marks]
 

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