6.1.1 Geopolitical threats to individuals and businesses

News article

‘Degree of complacency’: are supply chains prepared for impact of ongoing Iran war?

The economic warnings are bleak, but full extent of shortages are still not felt for many European countries

The Guardian · 10 May 2026

Key terms

• Economic risk
  • The potential for financial loss or instability due to factors such as currency fluctuations, trade restrictions, demand shocks, and price volatility, which may disrupt businesses, supply chains, and economic sovereignty.

• Economic sovereignty of states
  • The freedom of a state from outside intervention in its markets and trading relationships, though no state has complete economic sovereignty due to the complexities of world trade and trading agreements.

• Geopolitical
  • Focuses on political power linked to geographic space. At the level of international relations, geopolitics is a method of studying foreign policy to understand, explain, and predict international political behaviour through geographical variables. These include area studies, climate, topography, demography and natural resources.

• Geopolitical risk
  • The risk stemming from political relations among nations, particularly regarding disputes over borders, territories, and resources.

• Global supply chain
  • The worldwide system that a business uses to produce products or services.

• Hacking
  • Refers to activities that seek to compromise digital devices, such as computers, smartphones and even entire networks. And while hacking might not always be for malicious purposes, nowadays most references to hacking, and hackers, characterise it/them as unlawful activity by cybercriminals - motivated by financial gain, protest and information gathering (spying).

• Identity theft
  • Occurs when someone uses another person's personal identifying information, like their name, identifying number, or credit card number, without their permission, to commit fraud or other crimes.

• Personal freedoms
  • An individual's rights and abilities to act without undue interference from governments or other entities, including the freedom of movement, speech, and access to information, while also incorporating protection from surveillance and unjust restrictions on these freedoms.

• Physical risk
  • The potential for harm or disruption stemming from environmental factors such as natural disasters, extreme weather events, and pandemics, that can impact supply chains and infrastructure.

• Political risk
  • The potential for instability, disruption, or loss arising from factors such as political instability, trade restrictions, terrorism, corruption, and the failure of national governance, all of which can impact businesses, supply chains, and a state's sovereignty.

• Political sovereignty of states
  • The freedom of a state to govern itself fully, independent of interference by any foreign power.

• Surveillance
  • The monitoring of activities, behaviours, and communications of individuals or groups by governments, organisations, or other entities, often using technologies like CCTV, internet monitoring, and data collection.