1.2.1 Population change and demographic transition over time

Content

Geographic inquiry and concept(s)
- Processes of population change and their effect on people and places
Geographic knowledge and understanding
- Population change and demographic transition over time, including natural increase, fertility rate, life expectancy, population structure and dependency ratios
Case study or detailed examples
- Detailed examples of two or more contrasting countries
Aims of this lesson
- To be able to define natural increase, fertility rate, life expectancy and dependency ratio.
- To be able to describe and explain population change by using the demographic transition model.
- To be able to use population pyramids to describe and explain population structure
- To develop detailed examples for countries within all categories of World Bank classification

Country joins EU neighbours in demographic crunch of ageing population and falling birthrate

The Guardian · 14 January 2026

Age dependency ratio
- The sum of the young population (under age 15) and elderly population (age 65 and over) relative to the working-age population (ages 15 to 64).

Demographic transition
- The changes in key population parameters over time, primarily focusing on birth rates, death rates, and overall population growth within a society or country as it undergoes social and economic changes.

Internal migration
- Refers to the movement of people within the same country from one geographical area to another. This type of migration does not involve crossing international boundaries but involves relocating from one region, state, or city to another within a nation's borders.

Life expectancy at birth
- Indicates the number of years a newborn infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality at the time of its birth were to stay the same throughout its life.

Population pyramid
- A diagram that shows the distribution of a population by age groups and sex, depicting each group’s percentage or absolute number of the total population.

Rate of Natural Increase
- The birth rate minus the death rate, expressed as a percentage. This value represents the estimated rate of population growth without regard for migration.

Total fertility rate
- Represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.

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Explain how an increase in life expectancy can affect a country's dependency ratio. [2]
Outline how population structure changes between Stage 2 and Stage 4 of the demographic transition model. [2]
Explain two reasons why fertility rates decline during demographic transition. [4]
Explain two population characteristics of a country in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model. [4]
Ageing populations represent a greater challenge to long-term resource security than rapidly growing populations. To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]
Population growth poses a greater threat to global resource security than rising consumption per person. To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]
The demographic transition has done more to reduce pressure on resources than any strategy of resource stewardship. To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]
The new global middle class places greater pressure on resources than total population growth ever could. To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]
Boserup's optimism about population and resources is more convincing than the views of neo-Malthusian thinkers. To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]
The demographic dividend offers more opportunities than challenges for countries experiencing rapid population change. To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]
“The impacts of changing fertility rates are uneven across the world.” To what extent do you agree with this statement? [10]